BTC - Panic?

BTC – Panic?

Everyone knows BTC needed to correct, but this? Personally, I tapered back on Monday evening and then again at 4am as my TradingView alarms started to trigger – I hold them tight for adequate warning. I’d like to say that I sold my whole bag, but I only got about 40% off. I didnt comprehend a selloff of this magnitude. So, I’ve suffered some unexpected drawdowns as well. To make matters worse, Kucoin completely crapped the bed when BTC was in the juicy buying range of 42-43K so I have to settle with buys in the 46K range.

I didnt see this coming – but history showed me that it could. The lower chart is the 2013 daily chart showing the 1st top, sell-off, bottom, and then a nasty correction just as things were getting rolling. This kicked off the big bull run. So, is the bull run next or do we start a very nasty September/October where we finish the C wave on the monthly down to 20K ish? I bought into all the green signals, but there’ve been some indicators that give me a bit of caution.

Here’s how I’m going to play it. I’m going to let the dead cat bounce and trade in and out through the rest of the trading day. Its a serious sell off so thinking there will be big profits today is wishful thinking. I’m basically trading a +-200 sat range on BTC . Tomorrow will be the day where I decide what to do. There are plenty of examples of recent sell-offs like this. Take your pick on the upper recent daily chart . What I see there is that the price range is very narrow for 1-3 days after the big sell-off then the downward sell-off continues. If the market can not V-bottom out of this very quickly, I expect sellers to restart their selling. The nasty correction before the bull run of 2013 did turn out to be a short, one day, nasty head fake, but the Composite Man didnt let price stay low the next day. The market ate it up and that was a sign the bull run was on.

The run up from 29k yielded substantial gains. Personally, I wont risk more of those gains if the market doesnt convince me that these prices after the sell-off are deeply discounted for the future. The selling was irrational – the worst kind. It raises a big red flag for me. Tomorrow brings another piece of the puzzle.