Took the Christmas weekend to fiddle with some projections for BTCUSD , whilst planning the next incoming entry points…
This is merely pattern recognition and projection on a BTCUSD log chart, using historical magnitudes and time lines.
First, back testing the peak cycles, it appears that since 2013, there is a pattern of BTC peaking out in the time line.
As shown with the green cycles drawing at the top of the chart, BTCUSD peaks out almost every 18 months.
Second, the 2013 June peak was shifted and likewise the next peak was shifted too.
Third, The magnitude of the past rally (Green Arrow) is translated to current time and it indicates a peak in 2022 of about 60,000. Note that this is a linear projection. Perhaps a percentage projection might put BTCUSD into 150-200K target range, of which I am guesstimating at best and not calculated in this exercise.
Fourth, a final retracement was observed before breakout, and this retracement was about 30%. This puts the impending retracement for an overshooting peak to about 20,000 in the next weeks/months.
Finally, according to the model, the next peak is expected to be in July 2022.
Taken together, these suggest that a peak out may be near. And if so, a retracement to about 20,000 is in the order. This may mean that there is a second bite of the cherry in the coming months.
For those interested, do extensive due diligence, have a plan, and be ready to press the button…
Blessed Christmas, and Happy New Year!
Stay safe, stay well.