Trump’s Odds Drop to 33%, Easy 3x in 1 Month?
Trump was diagnosed with COVID last night. His betting odds have dropped to under 34% which means you could easily triple your money if he wins. Chances are high (99%) that he will survive the infection. And chances are also very high that he will win the election.
Many will say “look at the polls!” but as we know from the 2016 Wikileaks and election results, the polls are manipulated by oversampling democrats, and the mainstream media plays right into this bias:
“I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling” https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/ema…
“Hillary Clinton has an 85% chance to win.” NYT . November 8th, 2016.
“Chance of winning: Hillary Clinton 71.4%. Donald Trump 28.6%.” FiveThirtyEight. November 8th, 2016
“Clinton has 90 percent chance of winning” Reuters. November 7th, 2016.
“In the four way race, Clinton tops Trump by a 45-43 percent margin. She was up by three points a week ago (44-41 percent) and by six in mid-October (45-39 percent)” Fox News. November 5th, 2016.
“Bottom line: Using the Princeton Election Consortium’s methods, a less aggressive assumption (sigma=1.1%) leads to a Clinton win probability of 95%.” Princeton University. November 6th , 2016
Obviously the mainstream media polls and election forecasting methodologies cannot be trusted, and are being heavily manipulated by the center-right and the left. I would bet that Trump’s chances of winning are very high, and that his base is quite fired up for him. According to a recent Gallup poll 94% of republicans support the president and 39% of independents support him as well. According a recent News poll, only 86% of democrats have a favorable view of Biden (independent results not available). From what I’ve personally seen it seems most democrats are only voting for Biden because he’s “not Trump,” which doesn’t give him much momentum. Had the democrats nominated a far-left candidate like Bernie Sanders, the results would be much harder to predict.
I think the democrats will become radicalized after this election and nominate a far-left candidate, and they will likely win the 2024 election. For now, the radicalized far-right Trump has much more momentum than the middle-of-the-road center-left Biden , and there’s a very good risk/reward ratio on this bet. Also there’s a chance Trump’s betting odds get even lower the closer we get to the election, like it did in 2016, so it might be a good idea to save some money for that. There’s obviously no guarantee that Trump will win but the risk to reward here seems very good.
(BTW this is not a political statement, just simple observation. I will be voting for the Libertarian Party candidate. I don’t support either authoritarian party.)