Uncovering the next best trades using Comparative Analysis
Here I will summarize my Relative – Comparative analysis study of Altcoin markets for you folks to be able to focus your short – term and swing trades on the most profitable markets in the next move!
This type of analysis was first set forth by Wyckoff and ever since has been taken on by some of the best and most well-known securities operators such as David Weiss. It is performed by comparing major highs and lows of markets to uncover the presence of institutional interest. This is done against a proxy of the market, often indexes that incorporate each security. Often markets that have deeper pockets interested in them outperform their peers and lead bull markets. (It gets a little bit more complicated for bear markets, I will discuss that for you folks in future posts!)
This weekend we saw some slowing down in Defi and pumping in Eth and Bitcoin . As a result, Alts can be the next big market that value buyers will run to. So this is a perfect time to find stronger players among the bunch for those beautiful swing trades to come!
Here are the markets that I studied:
#ADA, #BNB, #BCH, #BSV, #EOS, #ETH, #ETC, #XRP
Among the basket above, the markets below show rotational strength in the most recent bull run:
Let’s compare these stronger markets in rotation with a weaker market to make the contrast clear…focus on the slope of each line compared to above, and especially the slopes of the lines in the last bull leg up!
This is ADA , a market that usually runs really sharply, but stays stagnant and losing for a while before getting into profit. Right now, we’re seeing an underperformance as shown below and you’re better saving your precious time and cash if you’re trading short term / leveraged positions:
I’m going to also leave my analysis of ETH, my first pick in ALTS here for you folks, but this week I will be posting analysis of the other ALTs and some MIDs such as #VET and #LINK so make sure to follow me and like this post!
First let’s take a look at the daily view and see how the market has behaved in accordance to the Wyckoffian picture: (this is the title chart)
You can see in point the market was absorbed strongly after the COVID crash and has made a beautiful uptrend ever since, and seems like we’re headed higher…and I mean much higher…we’ll get to that in a moment
The market next makes a re-absorption trading range, marked as LPSY, or Last Point of Supply
at point we see a healthy increase in demand pressure, followed by reducing in the Backing Up action (BU) which in principle is a test of the Break Out (B/O) above the long term trading range resistance at the $375
Notice how the intraday sell-off at point marks the BU trading range, which is a re-absorption of its own. The fact that price spent the majority of its time above the 50% line of the channel in itself is a telltale sign of buying pressure
Now that we have a clear bull picture, let’s take a look at some possible targets and trading tactics:
Do you see the beautiful 70 bar trading range in this 4×3 chart? That would be the whole trading range. The most and optimistic picture, and it leads us to $1270. A 200% increase.
But again, all starts need to align and we need not have another COVID crash for that target to be unfolded in the medium or short term
The two other targets, $485 and $600 seem much more plausible.
$485 because it is the 1.38 Fib level of the last bull run (not shown) + the targets for two PnF segments (blue ribbons are the different segments)
And $600 area is the 1.618 Fib retracement and 0.618 Trend-based Fib extension levels of the previous bull run, but they’re not shown for the sake of chart clarity (and I’m mainly a Wyckoffian). But the x.618 Fib ration certainly is a significant level and must be watched for.
Now as for tactics, I’m buying more ETH as it’s testing the body of this last bar, which I’ve marked as “Confirmation” and leave my high-risk position’s stops below the $360 and $300 Trading range support.
Full disclosure though I already am in ETH and would just be buying more. This isn’t my most ideal entry, but the gravy train seems to want to run long folks, so you better jump on before it’s too late!
Let me know how you’re going to play out your trades in our favorite markets and their stops in the comment section below!
And don’t forget to like and follow the page for more analysis!